The purpose of this publication is to help investors make wiser investment timing decisions on the stock of Apple Computer and other companies.
Another creed similar to the above is: "Be Neither Too Greedy Nor Too Fearful." Too often investors buy after a stock has climbed rapidly and just before the stock begins to fall. They then sell the fallen stock just before it begins to rise. This can be greatly minimized if investors Remember the Investment Credo! In practice this involves identifying a company or mutual fund with excellent long-term prospects. Then buy the stock (or mutual fund) after it has bottomed out. Then do not sell it as long as the long-term prospects remain excellent. Practicing the credo also involves other procedures. Slightly different techniques apply to highly speculative stocks. What other procedures and techniques are involved in practicing the credo? How does one know which stocks to buy and at what times? Hint: Some of the procedures involve time-tested conservative investment strategies.
The answers to these questions are provided in the article entitled Effective Conservative Investment Strategies and Stock Selection Techniques. Many timing signals are now reported at this web site, however publication of the subscriber e-mail version "Gavin Young's Investment Timer Reports ™" has recently ceased.
May 29, 1998 - Gavin Young's Investment Information Service Has Ceased Publication
Publication of the Investment Information site has ceased. The editor decided to spend more time enjoying his Macintosh and other activities, than providing investment information. Another reason was due to low readership at this site. However, on occasion Apple oriented investment information might be provided at the Phoenix Arises site.
May 11, 1998 - Apple Investment Coverage Now To Be Provided on Phoenix Pages
Starting today, investment coverage of Apple will be provided on the Phoenix pages and not on this page. This will make it easier for Apple investors to read the news, rumors, speculation, and investment analysis from one location. In other words, news coverage and investment coverage of Apple are converging onto one web site location.
May 7, 1998 (evening) - Apple Upgraded from Speculative Buy to Buy
Apple now has two back to back profitable quarters, the first time since 1995. Unit sales in the most recent quarter were higher than in the year ago quarter. Market share in the US increased from the quarter ending in December 1997 to the quarter ending in March 1998. Profits are expected to increase in the current quarter and the next two quarters. Market share is expected to be higher in the next two quarters, due to new lower priced high performance consumer products and professional products with highly competitive price/performance. Apple's new OS (code-named Rhapsody) will be shgipping soon, possibly this summer. This OS will run on both Power Macs and Intel-standard PCs. It might even be able to run current Macintosh software on the Intel hardware (Steve Jobs might comment on this matter on May 11, 1998).
Costs are declining and are expected to decline further as the company incorporates more emerging IBM/Intel-standard parts into Macs. It is expected that Macs and IBM-standard PCs will continue to converge regarding hardware components. Apple's seminars next week are expected to include discussion of IBM-standard and Mac-standard PCs converging. Though CHRP might be dead, the spirit of CHRP-based Macs is very much alive. The hardware convergence is easier now that the Mac OS (since Mac OS 8.0) has built-in support for CHRP hardware. As an example of the convergence, Apple demonstrated a new consumer Mac using USB components yesterday.
The editor no longer views Apple's stock as a speculative/high risk investment. The editor now views it as a solid long-term investment, hence the rating upgrade.
Short-term Outlook on Microsoft is Now Negative
Microsoft's stock has been falling rapidly, and greater government action against it now seems highly likely. Apple's growing market share (see article above) will also reduce Microsoft's sales growth. The stock has fallen rapidly since it's most recent earnings announcement, and the editor expects that the stock will drop below $78/share. As of today, the stock closed at $83 3/8ths per share. For further reasons on negative outlook, see this article by the President of Omni Development, Inc. at "Becoming a programmer for Windows is like becoming a dentist for a Tyrannosaurus".
Stocks No Longer Tracked By This Web Site
CPU's such as the Intel x-86 processor line and the PowerPC are under growing pricing pressure as the computer market matures. As a result, profit margins on these products are under great pressure. The editor expects that Intel's sales and profit growth rates will slow down. Likewise profit margins for National Semiconductor and AMD will continue to be under pressure, though they may gain some market share from Intel. Therefore, this web site will discontinue tracking the stocks of Intel and National Semiconductor. Stocks of Apple and Dell will likely fare better because their component costs are declining.
April 6, 1998 - Buy Signal Triggered On Radius and National Semiconductor - Updated at 11:30 pm PST
A Buy signal was triggered on Radius today. Some of the reasons are that the stock was recently trading at about 1/60th of its peak price, (the lowest price for the stock was back in mid-1997 at about $2), the stock has begun to rebound, the reverse stock split put the stock above $2.50 (thereby removing much of its penny stock stigma), the company is releasing leading-edge cross-platform products (as opposed to primarily Mac compatible products), the company recently became the first to obtain a license from Apple for QuickTime 3.0, Umax will include Radius' firewire products and software with several of its Mac OS compatibles and Windows NT systems, and Radius is transitioning towards becoming a software only company. The ticker symbol is now again RDUS (not RDUSD). However this is a speculative issue.
The intermediate and long-term timing indicators triggered a buy signal on National Semiconductor (NSM) today. As a cautinary note, the PC on a chip won't be ready till mid-1999.
See the disclaimer at the bottom of this web page.
March 26, 1998 - Apple to Ship More Than 300,000 G3 Macs This Quarter
Apple had a Macintosh Business Expo in Portland, OR on March 24, 1998. The Expo is an annual event in Portland, OR. The event is covered in "The Oregonian" newspaper ( phone # 503-221-8327 ) of Wednesday , March 25, 1998. Some quotes from the article entitled "Apple Computer designs comeback" are:
(Mitch) Mandich (Apple Computer Inc.'s senior vice president for global sales) said the company is on track this quarter to sell more than 300,000 of its new, ultrafast G3 computers - and that's more than double its G3 sales last quarter.
Apple wants its inventory to turn over 25 times by year-end, Mandich said.
Mandich said he is urging Jobs to stay.
"What Steve is wrestling with," Mandich said, "is how to balance his life, more than anything else" among Apple, his family and Pixar, his company known for the "Toy Story" movie." "Once he reconciles how he can manage all three of those, he'll be in a better position to commit."
March 25, 1998 - CPQ, DELL, & MSFT Update
Yesterday, a short-term buy signal was triggered on CPQ and DELL and the stocks are likely to continue their rise in the short-term. DELL should perform better. It's beginning to look like MSFT won't drop below $78.
March 14, 1998 - Reasons for the Rise in Apple's Stock Price (includes excerpts from this site's posting onto Yahoo!'s Apple message board on March 12, 1998 @ 9:03PM EST and 9:18PM EST)!
Here are 17 likely reasons for the rise in Apple's stock price:
(1) Steve Jobs will give the keynote address at Seybold Seminars New York/Publishing 98 on Tuesday and he is known for good surprises.
(2) Apple's CEO search firm said about 30 days ago that they expect Apple to hire a new CEO within 30 - 45 days. Hopefully they are right. I hope the CEO will be James (Jim) Cannavino (see number 11).
(3) Many investors (myself included) expect Apple to announce a profit for the current quarter and the stock often rises during the end of a quarter.
(4) Jobs will give the keynote at NAB on April 6th and an earnings pre-announcement might be made at that time.
(5) Apple is expected to officially announce their earnings on April 15th and their shareholders meeting is scheduled for exactly one week later - Apple is likely expecting to announce a profit, otherwise why schedule the shareholders' meeting to be 7 days after the announcement (see comment on Silicon Investor's Apple Computer message board)?
(6) Apple's stock fell rapidly from about $50 in Mid/Late 1995 to below $20 in early 1996. If Apple does report profits for the next 2 quarters, don't be surprised if the stock recovers those losses and reaches $50/share by year-end.
(7) Apple's rise began on Jan 2, 1998 - less than a week before Jobs' announcement at MacWorld. The stock often rises about a week before January MacWorlds. Many innvestors were also hoping that Jobs will give a surpise like he did at the August MacWorld.
(8) At the January MacWorld Jobs made a pre-announcement of a profit for Apple. This is the biggest Apple profit since the Sep - Dec. quarter of 1995!
(9) There is talk of the next great thing from Apple, a low cost Apple Media Player (AMP) that will create a new standard like The Apple II and the Macintosh.
(10) Apple's recent profit will make it easier to find a new CEO.
(11) James Cannavino is rumored to be the front runner in becoming Apple's official CEO and he appears to be an excellent choice.
(12) Many people who have shorted Apple are now covering there shorts by buying Apple's stock (as seen by the declining short-interest on Apple's stock).
(13) Apple is running attention getting television and magazine ads.
(14) Apple's store-within-a-store is a big improvement.
(15) Apple has been aggresively cutting costs.
(16) Apple's has an alliance with Microsoft, recently in the form of Microsoft and Apple unifiying their Mac OS based Java Virtual machines (per company press releases).
(17) Apple is getting favorable media attention, since January.
Apple's proxy might contain surprise topics for shareholders to consider, such as FileMaker.
In the editor's opinion, the most likely time for Apple to announce a new CEO would be on the same day that Apple announces their earnings (most likely a profit). The official earnings announcement date will likely be April 15th or 16th. Shareholders would then have two peices of good news to consider by the April 22nd meeting of shareholders. Apple's sales, profits, and stock price in 1998 - 2002 might rebound like IBM's of mid 1993 - mid 1997!
Due largely to the above reasons, it is the editor's opinion that AAPL will rise to $30 by Wednesday 3-18-98. However, don't expect the stock to close one or more points up or down on Monday March 15th. This is because it is not known what Steve Jobs will say on Tuesday. Great news will raise AAPL's price on Tuesday, but lack of great news might lower AAPL's price on Tuesday. These major possibilities will likely cause investors to be cautious on Monday. As a warning, consider that Apple's stock began a rapid descent the last two times the stock approached $30 (in Ocotober 1996 and August 1997).
Apple's IBM/Cannavino Connection
James (Jim) Cannavino -
It is interesting to note that even four years ago, Cannavino (IBM's senior vice president of strategy and development at the time) was interested in NextStep running on PowerPC. His desire is now being fullfilled because Apple bought Next and is porting NextStep to Power Macintosh in the form of a new operating system code-named Rhapsody.
Jim Carlton in his book entitled "Apple - The Inside Story of Intrigue, Egomania, and Business Blunders" says the following on page 292:
It would probably be a good thing if Cannavino is announced as CEO of Apple!
Timothy Cook -
Jerome York -
Ellen Hancock -
NeXT Software (now owned by Apple) -
Will the connection between Apple and IBM become closer? Will more IBM (or former IBM) executives become Apple executives? Will IBM eventually buy or merge with Apple? These are questions worth pondering.
When to Buy Radius (RDUSD formerly RDUS)
March 8, 1998 - Coming Soon - When to Buy IBM and CPQ!
In other news, DELL has its 100% stock dividend on Monday. VOL topped $57 on Friday! See February 28 and 7 for articles about Volt (VOL).
March 4, 1998 - Intel, Microsoft, and Compaq Are Expected to Drop Several Points on March 5, 1998!
Apple in 1998 - 2002 = IBM in mid 1993 - mid 1997? (Revised on March 14, 1998)
Apple reported a surprise profit in January. Many expect Apple to name an official CEO this month. Apple's stock is uncharacteristically strong in recent days. Apple's stock has risen from about $13 in the last of week of December 1997 to $24 7/16 today! It hasn't been this high since August 1997! Recent developments suggest that Apple's stock will rise at least through the middle of this month (the earliest expected time for the hiring of a new CEO), if not beyond. Developments suggest that Apple's financial (and stock price) recovery began on January 1, 1998.
February 28, 1998 - Apple Computer, Volt, and Microsoft Investment Timer Report!
Apple's stock (AAPL) closed at $23 5/8 on Friday! See the timing signals issued by this site on February 9th and December 23/25th. Many believe that Apple will announce a new CEO by the end of March, if not by mid-March. Many investors (myself included) hope it will be James (Jim) Cannavino.
Some time ago, MacOS Rumors reported that Apple's engineers said they had found a better kernel than Mach for the Allegro release of the Mac OS. It was speculated that they might be referring to the Windows NT kernel. Recent reporting by MacOS Rumors now give me the impression that mkLinux might be used instead of Mach.
Volt's stock (VOL) closed at $52 9/16ths on Friday. It is the editor's opinion that VOL is still a good buy.
Microsoft (MSFT) had their stock split after the market close on the 20th. Admittedly the stock has not yet dropped to my target of $70 to $72.50 ($140 to $145 adjusted for 2-for-1 stock split). Many people believe that all stocks rise rapidly just after they split. But this doesn't always happen. Yes MSFT's stock rose rapidly this week., but such has not always been the case with MSFT's stock splits. MSFT's shareholders web page mentions that the company had six stock splits (prior to the 2-23-98 split) since going public in 1986. The dates given are the first day of trading in the split stock. In EVERY ONE of these cases the stock later achieved an intraday price low that was lower than the closing price of the day of the split! In all but the 6th split, the stock later achieved an intraday price low that was lower than the closing price of the day prior to the split! However that only exception was only a trivial exception. On Friday 12-6-96 the stock closed at $38.22. On 12-9-96 (the day of the split) the stock closed at $40.87. On 12-16-96 the stock reached an intraday price low of $38.25. (Prices are adjusted for this week's stock split.) This was within 3 cents of the pre-split close! The low points often occured within 3 weeks of the stock split and they all occured in less than 2 months after the split. The stock sometimes rose rapidly just after the split, but it later gave back all of those gains. However, soon after the stock reached a price lower than the price of the day of the split, the stock did rebound. The typical rebound was a gain of 33% to 50% in 1 to 2 months!
If MSFT repeats it stock split history, the stock will drop to at least $81 5/8 and probably to below $77 9/16ths! Yesterday the stock had it first price drop since it's split last Monday. The stock closed at $84 3/4 down 3/4. It is the editor's opinion that a great time to invest in MSFT would be shortly after the stock drops to $77 9/16ths. However it is possible that the stock might not reach that price, nonetheless the odds are high that it will.
It should be remembered that buy and sell timing signals reported at his web site are not actual buy and sell recommendations. They are however information that are useful to an investor evaluating buy and sell situations.
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