The purpose of this publication is to help investors make wiser investment timing decisions on the stock of Apple Computer and other companies.
Another creed similar to the above is: "Be Neither Too Greedy Nor Too Fearful." Too often investors buy after a stock has climbed rapidly and just before the stock begins to fall. They then sell the fallen stock just before it begins to rise. This can be greatly minimized if investors Remember the Investment Credo! In practice this involves identifying a company or mutual fund with excellent long-term prospects. Then buy the stock (or mutual fund) after it has bottomed out. Then do not sell it as long as the long-term prospects remain excellent. Practicing the credo also involves other procedures. Slightly different techniques apply to highly speculative stocks (such as Apple Computer's stock). What other procedures and techniques are involved in practicing the credo? How does one know which stocks to buy and at what times? Hint: Some of the procedures involve time-tested conservative investment strategies.
The answers to these questions are provided in the article entitled Effective Conservative Investment Strategies and Stock Selection Techniques. This site is now complete! "Gavin Young's Investment Timer Reports ™" are now available via e-mail. For the latest information, visit this web site frequently!
"Gavin Young's Investment Timer Reports ™" provide timing signals on several stocks and one mutual fund. The timing signals are based upon the editor's proprietary indicators, the same ones that prompted this web site to issue a Speculative Buy Signal on Apple on the evening of December 23, 1997 when the stock was at only $12 15/16! The Timer Reports also provide the editor's opinions about the outlook for several of the investments. The opinions are based upon the indicators, the overall investment charts, and news analysis. For more information about "Gavin Young's Investment Timer Reports ™," including how to subscribe, simply click Investment Timer Reports!
February 17, 1998 - Apple Computer and Microsoft News
Apple's Investor Relations web page now mentions April 22, 1998 as the date for the Annual Shareholders' Meeting, confirming the date reported on February 7th.
On Friday my short-term timing indicator on Microsoft (MSFT) indicated that Microsoft's stock appears to have reached a short-term top. My opinion is that the stock will fall to at least $140 to $145 before a new high is made. Today the stock fell by more than 3 points at a steady pace! It may be three to four more weeks before a price bottom is reached.
February 9, 1998 - Apple Timing Signal Update!
On Friday the short-term timing indicator gave a favorable reading ("short-term buy signal") on Apple Computer. Today the stock closed over $19 and the reading is stronger! The last times Apple's stock triggered this signal were in late October (when rumors of a November 10th announcement began) and at the end of December (a week before MacWorld and Apple's surprise profit announcement). From late October till November 10th, the stock rose about three points before quickly falling. From late December till January 6th, the stock rose about five points. However, the intermediate-term timing signal implies that an intermeditate-term top is near. The long-term signal is still unfavorable.
An article at news.com entitled "Apple seeks cheap Mac to boost sales" quotes Apple's general manager for Europe when it says that the Windows version of Microsoft Office 98 "is really using the features of Mac OS." The article further says that "the cooperation of the two companies will see the Internet Explorer 4.0 including Apple's ColorSync product."
As of this morning, Apple's SEC Form 10-Q for the quarter ending December 1997 is available via EDGAR Online.
Today MacOS Rumors reported that Apple's "snail" ad is very successful! Could the news.com article and the "snail" ad along with last weeks rumors be raising Apple's stock price?
February 7, 1998 - Hopes Dashed Again, the February 3rd Non-Announcement
A few Apple web sites had stated that Apple was likely to make a big announcement on February 2nd and/or 3rd. On February the 2nd, the widely expected announcement of Apple making CompUSA their only US national Apple retailer did indeed happen. Apple did indeed have an employee meeting on February 3rd. However no astonishing announcements were made during the week of February 2nd 1998. It's like November 10, 1997 all over again. However one of those sites, namely the investor oriented AppleRECON, says that a big announcement is still likely to happen soon. AppleRECON even issued a speculative buy on Apple just prior to the 2nd and they currently maintain that buy. They say that negotiations are taking place. Will a big announcement be made, such a new CEO, a major investment by another company, a sale of FileMaker Inc., or even a sale of Apple Computer itself? Who knows, only time will tell.
How is it possible that the big rumors didn't come true in the November 10, 1997 and February 2 - 6, 1997 time frames? It is possible that the information sources of these web sites received entirely false information. However I don't think that is likely. After all they were correct in saying that an announcement would be made on those days. The inaccuracy was in the content regarding BIG announcements. I speculate that Apple was and is working on something BIG and that the sources knew of this. They also knew when announcements were scheduled to be made. Perhaps they made the big assumption that the big announcements would occur on those same days. Since those sources are not my contacts, I may never know if this is what happened. However a MacWeek columnist recently expressed the same opinion.
Though Apple scheduled a shareholders meeting on February 3rd that event has been postponed until further notice. Macintouch and other web sites say it has been moved to February 20th, then March 18th, and now April 22nd! What's going on? The April 22nd date is very interesting because it falls into the time frame that Larry Ellison says Apple will introduce/announce Apple Mac OS based NC's and low priced Macs. AppleRecon also recently said that it now looks like Apple will make a huge announcement at their next shareholders meeting. On January 10th this web site said such an event was likely, although the date of February 3rd was used because that was the date Apple said they would hold their meeting.
Coverage Now Expanded to Other High Tech Stocks
Is this a good time to buy Apple stock? That is hard to answer. However there are other very promising stocks to look at. Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), and Pixar (PIXR) have risen rapidly in the past few weeks! These companies/stocks are worth a further investigation.
Microsoft is setting new highs on the news of stronger than expected earnings, their recently announced 2-for-1 stock split, their recent decision to remove the Internet Explorer icon from Windows95 (thereby avoiding a contempt of court charge), and their winning a temporary removal of a special court official involved in the battle with the Justice Department. Needless to say, investors in Microsoft are doing quite well (myself included). Although I also currently own an Apple LEAP (long-term option) and an Apple short-term option, I must admit that it is much easier to make money on Microsoft stock and options.
Oracle is rebounding on the news that they expect North American revenues to be about 25% higher in their current quarter ending February 27th. They further state these sales are indicative of the growth for the company as a whole.
Pixar Animation Studios (run by Steve Jobs) has rapidly rebounded to a new all-time high. It was just announced that "Toy Story 2" will be a major movie release in 1999 instead of going directly to video. " A Bugs Life" will be released to theaters this year" and another animated film is due to be released in 2000. Analyst Paul Noglows says that Pixar will be the only studio, besides Disney, to release major animated films at the rate of one/year!
In a 1997 NBR interview on PBS Steve Jobs said that the main reason for the cyclical nature of Pixar's stock price was because it takes four years to create a computer generated animated film. As a result, earnings are punctuated at four year intervals if a company only develops one film at a time. He stated that his goal is have four films in development at all times in such a manner that one can be completed each year. His company is now on track to reaching this goal. He also has the goal of completing one film each quarter (developing 16 films simultaneously)! This would make earnings and the stock price even more stable.
Status of Volt Information Sciences (VOL)
Volt's stock has risen rapidly in past years but fell from a high of about $70 in November 1997 to about $44 on January 12th 1998. In the middle of this period the company announced that the person who is the CEO, President, and Chairman of the company is in the early stages of Parkinson's disease. It was further stated that the CEO's doctor says that the condition is not currently impairing the CEO from carrying out his duties. It is the stock that triggered an intermediate-term timing signal on January 14th. The signal was a little bit early. On January 14th the stock closed at $47 3/16 but on January 23rd the stock closed at $39 1/2. However yesterday it closed at $49 5/8!
It should be remembered that buy and sell timing signals reported at his web site and in the "Investment Timer Reports" are not actual buy and sell recommendations. They are however information that are useful to an investor evaluating buy and sell situations.
January 15, 1998 - Clarification Regarding the Name of This Site
Notice that this site has been renamed as "Gavin Young's Investment Information Service" instead of "Gavin Young's Investment Advisory Service." Why so? Apparently the former name gave some people the wrong impression. The editor and this site are NOT claiming to be registered with the SEC as an investment advisor.
January 14, 1998 - Timing Signal Update!
The intermediate-term timing signal for one of eight investments tracked by this web site (see Investment Timer Reports) has been updated to a buy! Information about which investment was updated is only provided to subscribers of the Timer Reports. See Investment Timer Reports for subscription information!
January 10, 1998 - Recap of News; Timing Signals; Annual Shareholders' Meeting; Outlook on Apple's Stock
Though Apple's stock didn't rise on Monday, it did rise on Tuesday. During the past week the stock price has been volatile and there have been heavy trading on both up and down days. There were no surprises at MacWorld other than two. Sales of Macs in CompUSA stores increased from 3% of total sales to 14% of total sales in those stores that have implemented the Apple Store. Steve Jobs said that Apple expects to report earnings in excess of $45 million for the quarter that just ended. The official announcement is expected to be made on January the 14 or perhaps the 15th. The press have begun downplaying the earnings by saying that Apple's revenues and unit sales are still down. Steve Jobs interview with CNBC was a disaster - Jobs stormed out of the interview. If Apple announces earnings of $50 - $60 million in mid January, then the stock might get a small additional boost for one day. Does this mean that short-term traders should hold or sell Apple's shares?
The positive news appears to be negated by the negative. Apple's stock price tends to fall under these conditions. However it did have a rising trend for a few months when Apple reported a much smaller than expected loss in July 1996. It's unclear if such a trend will happen this time. My short-term timing indicator is giving a reading indicating a short-term top in the stock price. The intermediate-term indicator is favorable, but the long-term indicator is highly unfavorable (unlike in July 1996 when it was very favorable). However, like a barometer, these readings could begin to change at any time. Nonetheless, major changes are almost always the result of major announcements by the company. Might the company make a surprising favorable announcement at the Annual Shareholders' Meeting on February the 3rd?
Many have speculated that some corporations might try to drive down Apple's stock price just before the shareholders meeting. It is speculated that they might then initiate a proxy fight at the meeting. However any such attempt for a proxy fight might get derailed if many of the attenders are under the spell of a Steve Jobs induced reality distortion field. How likely is such an event?
The books' "Odyssey - Pepsi to Apple...A Journey of Adventure, Ideas, and the Future," by John Sculley with John A. Byrne and "West of Eden - The End of Innocence at Apple Computer," by Frank Rose mentioned that two Apple products were first unveiled at shareholder meetings. Steve Jobs unveiled the Lisa at the 1983 Annual Shareholders' Meeting and the Macintosh at the 1984 Annual Shareholders' Meeting. Steve Jobs made some major surprises at those meetings and he might do so again on February 3, 1998. For example, he might announce and/or demonstrate: a sub-$1000 Mac, a sub-$1000 NC, Windows NT kernel for the Allegro release of the Mac OS, Mac OS port to Intel, or Win32 API's for Rhapsody. He might announce an official CEO that Wall Street highly favors, a large common stock investment by another corporation, or major Rhapsody licensees.
In January of 1985, Apple announced a profit of $46.1 million on sales of $698.3 million for the prior quarter ("Odyssey" pages 226 - 228). The stock was trading for $14 to $15 (adjusted for the 2-for-1 stock split of 1987). These aspects of the financials sound like the current situation don't they?
What's my personal outlook on Apple's stock? I sold most of my Apple investments yesterday as the price reached $19/share and the short-term indicator topped out. If the stock drops much lower, and other conditions are favorable, I might make another investment in Apple.
Future timing signals for Apple Computer's stock, and other investments, will only be provided via subscriber e-mail of Gavin Young's Investment Timer Reports. However this web site will continue to provide investor oriented news analysis at no charge.
January 2, 1998 - Apple's Stock was Up Nearly 24% Today, Is Now the Time to Sell?
Those who bought shares of Apple stock (or Apple call options) during the first two trading days after I issued the "Speculative Buy Signal" (of the evening of December 23, 1997) on Apple are probably very happy right now! You might now be wondering when to sell. What follows is purely the editor's opinion.
Favorable press coverage of Apple's stock is likely to occur on Saturday. I expect Apple's stock to rise on Monday in anticipation of Steve Jobs keynote address on Tuesday. In addition, there were two blocks of 2+ million shares traded today. The rapid stock price rise occurred during the trading of those shares and was likely triggered by such trading. This is another reason to expect Apple's stock to rise on Monday. If Steve Jobs' speech triggers the stock to rise further on Tuesday after 9am, then I would hold the Apple shares until at least sometime on Wednesday. If the stock does not rise greatly between 9am (the time Steve's speech starts) and 30 minutes after the end of Steve's speech, then I would seriously consider selling Apple's stock (or call options). This is because much of today's rise was likely due to anticipation of major announcements on Tuesday. I will be at my day job during the time of Steve's speech (unless my boss lets me come in later that day) and thus I won't be able to update this site during that morning. Currently I plan to update the site on Tuesday or Wednesday evening, and maybe between tomorrow and Monday.
January 1, 1998 - Conversation With a Reader Who Claims to be a CPA
> Gavin,
> If you are still referring to accounting books to figure out the calculation of book value and basing a buy recommendation solely on the volume of stock purchased last week then I think you are hardly equipped to render investment advice to the internet public.
> Apple should be treated as a startup. It is repositioning itself in the market. The risk is high and so is the potential return.
Gavin's reply:
I've talked to some people who are CPA's and they didn't even know how to calculate book value. At least one of them also keeps an accounting textbook at work for reference.
The share volume wasn't the only factor. Other factors are the historical price low, the technical indicator I use, and products in development by Apple. Apple's stock also tends to rise before a January MacWorld event and after a huge drop in price (such as from the August high of nearly $30/share). Many of these factors are currently favorable for Apple's stock, but a little bit more is needed to fine tune the determination of when to buy.
Heavy trading volume (a popular tool of technical stock analysis) in connection with Steve Jobs upcoming keynote address is an important factor. I have seen many stocks skyrocket in price, just after heavy trading. However it was recently determined that the heavy volume appears to not be a significant favorable factor in this case.
Back in July 1996 Apple's stock was falling very rapidly (like it was during the past few months). The stock stopped falling when it got close to book value. Because Apple's stock is so weak, it could continue to drop. But it is also likely to be supported by book value, as it was in the past. Even much weaker stocks, such as Radius (a former Mac cloner - RDUS) and Macheezmo Mouse - (MMRI on the bulletin board market) have not dropped much below their book value per share.
Even though my confidence in the "Speculative Buy Signal" has diminished, it is interesting to note that the stock's rapid descent has thus far ceased since I issued the "Speculative Buy Signal." That in itself, shows that the information I provide is useful. My success or failure in providing investment information should be judged by the results over time and not on whether I consult a textbook from time to time. On the other hand, brokerage houses often give poor buy recommendations and most mutual funds under perform the broader market.
Often those who are willing to openly admit their mistakes and learn from them are the ones who are successful. Also one need not be a CPA to qualify to give investment advice. The Securities and Exchange Commission will let virtually anyone become a Registered Investment Advisor (after a background criminal check). No skills test is administered and no college degree is required.
December 31, 1997 - CORRECTION of Calculation of Apple's Book Value; Comments on Speculative Buy Signal:
On December 14, I wrote "Apple's Total Shareholder's Equity divided by the number of common stock shares outstanding (at the end of Fiscal 1997) equals $9.378/share. If the preferred stock shares owned by Microsoft are excluded from the Total Equity then the value is $8.206/share." Though these figures are accurate, I made the error of stating the $9.378 (or about $ 9 3/8) as the book value per share for Apple's (common) stock. I should have stated $8.206/share as the per share value of Apple's (common) stock. How did this error occur?
My accounting textbook says that "book value for an entire firm is the total of the assets less the total of the liabilities." In other words, it stated that book value is total equity, which includes Preferred Stock Equity. Hence the $9.378/share calculation. However this definition didn't quite seem accurate when a corporation had preferred stock in addition to common stock. Why so? If a corporation goes into bankruptcy, preferred stock holders have a greater claim to the corporation's assets, than the common stock holders. The common stock holders are in last place in their entitlement to the corporation's assets. This implied that book value is total equity excluding preferred stock equity. This is $8.206/share for Apple (Apple has $150 million of preferred stock. The preferred shares are Microsoft's non-voting stock investment in Apple Computer). Today, I read the following in my finance textbook. "Book value per share is equal to the common equity (common stock plus paid-in capital plus retained earnings) of the firm divided by the number of shares outstanding." Notice that preferred stock was not included in the calculation. The book also has an example of calculating the book value per share for a company that has both common and preferred stock. The preferred stock was excluded in the calculation.
Therefore, Apple's book value per share (on the common stock) is only $8.21/share and not $9.38/share. In AppleRECON's article entitled , 'Apple's Earnings: Reporting Wednesday14 Jan 98," of December 31, 1997, they say "Apple's share have a Book Value of 8.21 (MRQ) but it also has Cash Per Share of 11.40 (MRQ)." Therefore, AppleRECON confirms that the $8.21/share figure should be used. This means that Apple's stock has the potential of not only dropping to $9.38/share, but even to $8.21/share. If Apple reports a loss on January 14, 1998, book value would be even lower (as a general rule).
The issuance of a Speculative Buy Signal on Apple Computer was largely due to believing that the 2+ million shares traded on apple stock was due to an informed investor ("insider") making a major PURCHASE and due to the belief that Apple's book value per share was $9.38/share. I am now no longer certain that an "insider" purchased the large share block. Also the per share book value is $8.21/share instead of $9.38/share. Also Apple's stock has thus far only risen a fraction since the signal was announced. I thought that anticipation of MacWorld would have had a greater effect on Apple's stock by now. Although the anticipation is not rising Apple's stock, it might be holding it up at the current level. If no dramatic announcements are made at MacWorld, Apple's stock might experience a rapid DECLINE to close to book value per share! As a result, the Speculative Buy Signal on Apple Computer is now viewed as highly questionable. Investors who purchased Apple's stock at about $13/share, in response to the issuance of the "Speculative Buy Signal," might want to consider selling their stock while the stock is still slightly above $13/share. I apologize for the calculation error and any inconvenience it may have made. However, Apple might still make a dramatic announcement that could rapidly raise the stock price.
The decision regarding whether to invest in Apple, or not, is yours to make. Neither I, nor this web site, nor "The Phoenix Arises - News Analysis of Apple Computer," accept any responsibility for the outcome. The publisher takes reasonable care to assure the accuracy of the information contained herein but is not responsible for any errors or omissions. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of the editor's judgement as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information is merely provided to be of assistance to investors and should not be construed as a buy or sell recommendation. Readers should weigh matters carefully and use their own best judgement in making a decision suitable for their particular circumstances.
December 25, 1997 (Revision of December 23, 1997 evening article. Due to data loss on the 27th, this article has been recreated (with the help of some notes) on December 28, 1997.) - Merger of Mac OS and Windows 98/NT to be Announced by MacWorld January 1998? - Speculative Buy Signal Issued on Apple Computer (AAPL):
Does Apple have plans to merge the Mac OS/Rhapsody with Windows 95/98/NT? If so, will the plans be announced at MacWorld in January 1998? Is Apple's stock now a good buy? To help you answer these questions consider the following news and rumors.
On August 6, 1997 at MacWorld Steve made these two comments in his keynote address: "We have to let go of the notion that for Apple to win, Microsoft has to loose" and "The competition between Microsoft and Apple is over as far as I'm concerned."
During the past several weeks, MacOS Rumors reported that a programmer received a note from Microsoft saying that Microsoft is porting Windows 95 to Macintosh in two years. Several web sites have said that the joke at Apple Computer is that Windows 2000 = Rhapsody. Microsoft has been recently saying that Internet Explorer is an integral part of the latest Windows 95 release. This is because they share many common ".dll" (dynamically linked library) files. Internet Explorer is soon to become the default browser in the Mac OS. Does that mean that Windows code is included in the first version of the Mac OS having Internet Explorer as the default browser? If so, does that mean that future versions of the Mac OS will have even more Windows code?
During the past several weeks, MacOS Rumors reported that Apple's engineers said they had found a better kernel than Mach for the Allegro release of the Mac OS. It is speculated that they might be referring to the Windows NT kernel. The alleged advantages of using the Windows NT kernel are:
(1) Programmers could then write to the same kernel when creating software for Windows NT and Mac OS
(2) Many drivers exist for Windows NT. Since Windows NT supports a lot more hardware than the current Mac OS, using the Windows NT kernel would make it easier for Apple to both use new hardware options and to port the Mac OS to Intel.
(3) Using the Windows NT kernel would increase the compatibility between Windows and Mac OS. It would also make it easier for Apple to build in Windows application support into the Mac OS.
Page 20 of Apple's most recent 10-K filing with the SEC says:
"As a supplemental means of addressing the competition from Windows and other platforms, the Company had previously devoted substantial resources toward developing personal computer products capable of running application software designed for the Windows operating systems. These products include an add-on card containing a Pentium or 586-class microprocessor that enables users to run applications concurrently that require the Mac OS, Windows 3.1 or Windows 95 operating systems. The Company plans to transition the cross-platform business to third-parties during 1998. There can be no assurance that this transition will be successful."
Perhaps this also means that Apple intends to build Windows application support into the Mac OS, thereby eliminating the need for PC-Compatibility hardware cards. Apple's decision to stop making cross-platform products was discussed on September 11, 1997 in the article "Speculation by the Editor."
MacWeek reported several days ago that some computer manufacturers will be showing off Windows NT systems at MacWorld next month! MacWorld magazine just announced, in their February issue, that they will now include coverage of Windows NT in their magazine. Another article in MacWorld magazine, in the same issue, speaks about expanded Mac networking support in NT 5.0. There is another article called "Keeping Up with NT". Various news articles currently report that it is widely expected that Steve Jobs will announce plans regarding the future of Rhapsody at MacWorld.
Apple RECON earlier this month and last month spoke of rumors of a Mac Win98. They even reported that an Apple official was asked what will be done to help the Mac OS/Rhapsody compete with Windows 95/NT. It was reported that the Apple official said that they won't compete, for the Mac OS/Rhapsody and Windows 95/NT are going to be merged! AppleRECON makes references/allusions to those articles and speak of "Christmas Presents" in their December 23rd and 24th articles. Their "affiliate," RFI issues special reports to its subscribers. Might these subscribers know something that we don't yet know?
Several days ago, a reader of "The Phoenix Arises - News Analysis of Apple Computer" sent me e-mail saying that Microsoft has been urging Apple, for some time now, to license the Windows NT kernel. I asked that the reader elaborate on that comment, but have yet to receive a response. MacInTouch reported on the 23rd that a 2 million share block of Apple Computer (AAPL) traded that day. A 1-Minute stock chart of Apple indeed shows a 2+ million volume spike on Apple's stock shortly before the stock market's close that day. It can also be viewed on a 5-Minute Chart at Bidwell/Quote.com for the next few days. This is very significant because Apple's total volume for the day is often less than 2 million shares! Apple's total volume for that day was just over 4 million shares. Apple's stock closed at it's low for the day at $12 15/16, lower than the July 2, 1997 close (around the time of Gil Amelio's departure as CEO of Apple)! This low is within 3/16ths of the intra-day low achieved on July 10, 1997! As a result, Apple's stock is now at an 11 1/2 year low (stock split adjusted).
All of these events suggest that a merger of Mac OS and Windows NT might be announced at MacWorld in January 1998. They also suggest that Apple's stock price is to begin a rapid rise some time in the next several days! As a result, "Gavin Young's - Investment Information (formerly called Advisory) Services," in conjunction with the "The Phoenix Arises - News Analysis of Apple Computer", issue a Speculative Buy Signal on Apple Computer (AAPL) today! However this signal is only for those with very strong stomachs who are big risk takers and speculative traders! Those of us who are more conservative, myself included, will likely wait a little while longer. It might be hours, or it might be days before many of us decide to act. That's because even if Steve Jobs announces that the Mac OS/Rhapsody and Windows 95/98/NT will be merged, the stock might still drop greatly before the announcement is made. Apple's stock might still drop below $10. Then again, coverage of this matter on the web might cause the stock to rise in anticipation of the announcement.
The stock is not likely to drop much below it's book value of about $9 3/8 per share. Hence whoever put about $26 million (2+ million shares at between $12 15/16 per share and $13 per share) on the line is likely a buyer who is very confident that Apple's stock will rise (assuming that this was insider buying)! However the large block of shares traded may have simply been sold PowerComputing shares that had converted to Apple shares. If so, this would not be indicative of insider buying on Apple. In such a situation, there would be less reason to buy Apple at this time. (These last 3 sentences were added on 12-28-97 for clarification.)
The decision regarding whether to invest in Apple, or not, is yours to make. Neither I, nor this web site, nor "The Phoenix Arises - News Analysis of Apple Computer," accept any responsibility for the outcome. The comments made are merely the opinions of the editor. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, there is no guarantee that they are accurate. Information is merely provided to be of assistance.
December 21, 1997 - Shareholder Revolt of Apple in 1998?:
Do you wonder if Steve Jobs is truly capable of saving Apple? Do you want to take action to save Apple? If you answered yes to these questions, then read the December 14, 1997 articles entitled "Is Steve Jobs Truly Capable of Saving Apple?," "How People Can Take Action to Save Apple, Despite Current Management," and "Information from Apple's Recent 10-K filing with the SEC" at The Phoenix Arises - News Analysis of Apple Computer - December.
December 19, 1997 - Apple Computer Update:
Today Apple's stock was momentarily at $13 1/4! It closed at $13 11/16. See Bidwell/Quote.com and Yahoo for stock quotes and charts. For the past two weeks it has been falling at about 25 cents/share on average. If it continues at this rate, it will close at about $12.50/share on January 2, 1998 and $12.25/share on January 5, 1998 (the day before Steve Jobs keynote speech at MacWorld on the 6th at 9 am Pacific Time). My proprietary timing indicators indicate that Apple is either at or near an intermediate price bottom. The time to purchase shares of Apple is likely close, but be cautious. I haven't yet issued a buy signal - only a Prepare to Buy Apple signal.
I was expecting Apple to announce Network computers by January 6th. However, apparently there will be no NC or new CEO announcement on Jan. 6th" because of what Apple said, as reported by Reuters. As a result, my enthusiasm for investing in Apple by January 6th has dampened. But it is not extinguished, for Apple may still make some wondrous announcements (from an investor's perspective). Apple's stock may also be at a rock bottom price by that date - especially if Apple announces, before January 6th, that it expects an earnings loss for the quarter ending this month. Due to the extreme downward pressure on Apple's stock, investor's should be more concerned with being cautious until January 5th, than missing out on potential stock rises.
Be sure and visit this site frequently! It is updated more often than the "The Phoenix Arises - News Analysis of Apple Computer." Its investor oriented coverage of Apple Computer is complemented by the "The Phoenix Arises - News Analysis of Apple Computer," and is therefore best read in conjunction with it."
December 14, 1997 (Premier Issue - Revised) - Apple Computer Tip! :
Apple's stock is likely to rise as a result of Steve Jobs' upcoming Keynote Address at MacWorld on January 6, 1998. Apple's stock is near its 11 1/2 year low of $12.75 (adjusted for stock-split). Hence this is a good time to consider purchasing Apple's stock. However in light of Apple's falling sales, revenues, falling Macintosh unit sales, continuing losses, falling marketshare of computer sales, and the Asian market weakness, Apple's stock is likely to fall lower before rebounding. How low will it go before making a major rebound? That's currently unknown, however use $9 3/8 per share as the target price. This is because Apple's Total Shareholder's Equity divided by the number of common stock shares outstanding (at the end of Fiscal 1997) equals $9.378/share. If the preferred stock shares owned by Microsoft are excluded from the Total Equity then the value is $8.206/share. These figures approximate the liquidation value of Apple selling all of its assets and paying off all of debts. However Apple is likely to continue to post losses until at least mid 1998. These losses will reduce the per share Equity value by an amount approximately equal to the per share earnings losses.
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